The Arab Spring, which began in 2011, was dubbed as the starting point in removal of dictators in West Asia and North Africa. The latest to face this change is Syria where Bashar al-Assad was recently overthrown by a loose rebel alliance led by Hayat Tahrir alSham (HTS), after over fifty years of family rule.

HTS leader Ahmed alSharaa alias Abu Mohammed alJolani has pledged governance as its intent. However, with the multitude of rebel forces involved, each with its own agenda, and sponsored by different foreign powers, the scenario is anything but normal. The jubilation amongst Syrians at the removal of Assad was reminiscent of Saddam Hussain’s dethroning in Iraq. The justification of the US in removing Saddam was possession of Weapons of Mass Destruction as also human rights abuses. The vacuum created post Saddam’s removal opened doors for the emergence of ISIS which was subdued after years of fighting. It still exists in part of the country.

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While Iraq is a democracy, it remains fragile with sectarian tensions. Over 200,000 Iraqi civilians and over 4,500 US troops have been killed since Saddam’s ouster in internal strife and attacks by ISIS. Tunisia, where the Arab Spring began, transited to democracy and has since then been battling between democracy and authoritarianism. The economy has been sinking with international lenders demanding imposition of strict financial measures. The nation is now ruled by President Kais Saied, with absolute authority. Protests against him are ruthlessly suppressed. Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown with US backing, is a nation split and in turmoil. Its armed militias hold sway backing the two centres of power which control the country, both opposed to each other.

It is a nation with no shortage of weapons. Attempts at arriving at a ceasefire between the factions have failed. Taking advantage of existing instability, armed terrorist groups including ISIS and Ansar al-Sharia, responsible for the attack on the Benghazi US consulate in 2012, have expanded their hold. It is now a major transit route for illegal immigration to Europe. For most Libyans, migrating illegally to Europe is the only means of survival. The once most prosperous nation in North Africa is now in ruins. Russia, in all probability, will shift its military bases from Syria to Libya.

Yemen has been in turmoil since it faced its own version of the Arab Spring. The uprising was initially controlled but growing unrest forced then President Ali Abdullah Saleh to withdraw his troops deployed in remote provinces to ensure his continued reign. This opened doors for the Houthis and al Qaeda to grab territory and secure their bases. In Egypt, the Arab Spring led to the overthrow of the Hosni Mubarak regime. In elections in 2012, the Muslim Brotherhood headed by Mohammed Morsi gained power. Its governance was poor and society was divided. A little over a year later, the army retook the country with Field Marshal Abdul Fattah al-Sisi being nominated president. The regime has ruled the country brutally since then. The US has backed the Egyptian army including its coup, which removed the only democratically elected President of Egypt, Morsi.

Egypt is surviving with financial support from Saudi Arabia, UAE and the US. Afghanistan is another example of American intervention resulting in loss of hundreds of thousands of lives and the ultimate return of the same Taliban they overthrew to misgovern and mismanage. What the US achieved in the twenty odd years they remained engaged in Afghanistan is questionable. Bangladesh, where they were behind the change which overthrew Sheikh Hasina, has only been sliding downhill. Its economy is sinking while minorities face daily attacks. Whether the present regime can achieve control is to be seen. Almost every single case of regime change has been masterminded by the US or backed by it. Wherever the US was directly involved, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya etc, it attempted to impose its own form of democracy, failing each time, resulting in greater chaos and bloodshed.

The major cause for these failures has been their inability to prepare for subsequent phases post the change as also unwillingness to comprehend that some societies can never replicate US democratic systems. In April 2016, Barack Obama in a television interview mentioned that while intervening in Libya was ‘the right thing to do,’ however, ‘failing to prepare for the aftermath of the ousting of Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi was the worst mistake.’ Almost every nation where the US intervened is currently a failed state. Most nations, once ruled by strongmen, are today split and controlled by militias or Islamists. The Arab Spring has produced more chaos and bloodshed than existed before. The Houthis in Yemen, closely linked to Iran, have been targeting shipping in the Red Sea, while Iranian backed militias operate in Iraq.

Libya is the transit route for illegal migration to Europe. Afghans are suffering multiple shortages. Millions have entered Europe from nations involved in internal conflict, mostly impacted by US backed efforts at regime change. The plan to overthrow Bashar alAssad in Syria is not new. It had been ongoing since 2012, when the US began arming and training rebel groups in Syria. There was a pause in the plan during Donald Trump’s first term but regained momentum in recent years. The Hamas attack weakened Hezbollah and opened doors for rebel groups to gain control in Syria. How the country will emerge is to be seen. There is no doubt that it would be an Islamist nation with enmity against non-Muslims and a threat to Israel, though not aligned to Iran.

As with the Taliban, the US government is in contact with the HTS, which it once designated as a terrorist group. There are reports of terrorist groups regaining ground in Afghanistan. What will be the state in Syria is to be seen. The HTS is heading a loose alliance of groups. Will it be able to provide stability and meet the demands of the public is also unknown. The US has never learnt the lesson that regime changes only bring instability in regions. There might be satisfaction that a powerful dictator has been removed. But what follows has been worse.

(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army)